Total Pageviews

Sunday, April 8, 2012

The Statistics of Small Numbers and Why We Love Sports

Last Wednesday Professor Brian Coppola introduced an idea new to our course. Professor Coppola introduced the idea of "the statistics of small numbers." At first I was a bit confused as to what Professor Coppola meant, but as he went on lecturing, I began to get more of an idea. As I understood it, sports/games are unique because they deal with the statistics of small numbers, which in turn requires more of a leap of faith if you will. In Professor Coppola's field of chemistry he deals with the the statistics of large numbers which allows him to make conjectures with relative certainty. The more I thought about his theory, the more it began to make sense.

Today I was watching the Bulls vs. Knicks game. Down the late stretches of the game the score was close and both teams were jockeying for an edge. with less than 30 seconds left, and the Knicks down by 3, Carmelo Anthony came down and hit a contested 26 foot three pointer to tie the game and send it into overtime. At that moment I was cheering and clapping with joy, not because I am a Knicks fan, but because the play was really freaking exciting. Then I thought about why the play was exciting. For the game, Carmelo Anthony finished 16-31 shooting, 4-5 from 3-point range. In this situation we are most certainly dealing with the statistics of small numbers. So, when dealing with the statistics of small numbers we are never fully certain about which outcome will prevail. Will Carmelo miss, or will he make the shot? The suspense and anticipation build until ultimately the shot is hoisted and we are left watching and waiting to see what outcome will result. In that period of waiting so many thoughts run through the mind of a fan, that once the outcome is reached there is nothing left to do but cheer with joy, or sulk in the agony of defeat. The feeling is thrilling not because of the result, but because of the uncertainty of the result, and that is what makes sports fun.

Whether playing a sport, or simply taking it in as a fan, we are all aware that nothing is guaranteed. Every last bit of determination is needed in order to reach a goal established at the beginning of a game, series, or season. Even then, despite all the practice and competition, there is the element of not knowing that makes sports that much more fun and exciting. For anyone who has ever watched a close, hotly contested game you know exactly what I am talking about. And if you have ever watched a game where the outcome was never in much question, you really know what I am talking about.

So, maybe Professor Coppola is on to something. Maybe the statistics of small numbers is what makes sports/games unique from anything else we as humans enjoy. If the Bulls vs. Knicks game is any indication, then I think we are all pretty lucky.

2 comments:

  1. First off, this game was one of the most exciting, crazy regular season NBA games I have seen in a long time. Starting with the Knicks going up 21 points in the first quarter and ending with the Knicks coming back from 9 down in the last few minutes, needless to say I was on my feet screaming for most of the game. I agree with you that sports are exciting because of the unexpected outcome and impact of such small statistics. Sports are interesting to analyze because something unique happens each game. An inch left or an inch right and Carmelo Anthony’s shot could have rimmed out and the Bulls would have won. However, towards the end of the game, it sort of felt that whatever kind of shot left Anthony’s hand would have gone in. He was in such a rhythm and groove that in the most decisive part of the game, he knew he was going to make the shot. He even said after the game, "I make that all day every day." The clutch factor in sports, in my opinion, is what makes games like this one so exciting and memorable.

    ReplyDelete
  2. I also watched this game, and I swear this Knicks team is definitely the one that is going to give me a heart attack. You're right though, while I am a crazy fan who is frantic from the opening tip off until the last horn sounds, for the most part, I remained relatively calm throughout the game compared to the last few minutes and in overtime. In such long games, anything is possible which is what makes sports so great. Just because a team comes out hot off the bat, that means nothing until they can secure the lead for a full 48 minutes, something that Derrick Rose and the Bulls couldn't do against Anthony's Knicks. Carmelo screamed throughout the Garden, "This is my house baby. This is my house" following his game-winning three over Luol Deng, showing that the intensity of the final seconds does not just put the fans on edge, but gets players motivated enough to do things that people can even imagine possible like Carmelo Anthony's performance that Sunday afternoon.

    ReplyDelete